BMC Public Health. 2019 Jun 7 ;19(1):707. Epub 2019 Jun 7. PMID: 31174509
Coronary heart disease and stroke disease burden attributable to fruit and vegetable intake in Japan: projected DALYS to 2060.
BACKGROUND: Fruit and vegetable consumption was considered a protective effect against cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases (CVDs). This study aimed to project the reduction in the CVD burden under different scenarios of increased fruit and vegetable intake in Japan by 2060.METHODS: Population attributable fractions (PAF) were calculated by gender and age in 2015. The projection considered five scenarios for 2015, 2030, 2045, and 2060: 1) a baseline of no changes in intake; 2) a moderate increase in fruit intake (extra 50 g/day or 1/2 serving); 3) an high increase in fruit intake (extra 100 g/day or 1 serving); 4) a moderate increase in vegetable intake (extra 70 g/day or 1 serving); and 5) an high increase in vegetable intake (extra 140 g/day or 2 servings). Potentially preventable disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs) for CVDs were estimated for each scenario. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to calculate the 95% confidence intervals of the estimates.RESULTS: Across all age groups, men had a higher daily vegetable intake than women (292.7 g/d > 279.3 g/d) but a lower daily fruit intake (99.3 g/d